步入2019年，中国车市先后经历了“寒冬”、“国五国六切换前后观望期”、传统淡季，如今终于迎来了“金九银十”销售旺季。
今年7月和8月，中国汽车经销商库存预警指数分别为62.2%和59.4%，均大幅高于50%荣枯线，经销商库存压力较大。近日，9月汽车经销商库存预警指数公布，环比下降0.8%，同比下降0.3%，仅为58.6%。汽车经销商库存预警指数持续走低，中国车市回暖之势愈加明显。
01为何金九能回暖？
9月汽车经销商库存预警指数降低，据业内人士分析，主要是以下几大原因。
首先是国五国六车型切换的影响大幅降低。购买国六车型已成为消费者的购车共识，一方面是为了车型的保值率，另一方面是为了不影响上牌。目前市面上大部分车型都升级了国六排放标准，经销商有车可卖，消费者有车可选，销量自然恢复到车型切换前的正常水准。不过，消费者购车时仍要注意，部分车型为升级国六排放标准而牺牲了新车的动力性能，购买前要注意对比新旧款车型的相关参数。
其次，9月的购车优惠力度进一步加大，刺激了消费者的购买欲望。作为传统的销售旺季，9月又是第三季度的最后一个月，汽车经销商为冲刺销量，减轻库存压力，也下调了部分车型的价格。包括热销中的博越、哈弗H6和传祺GS4等紧凑型SUV，都有2-3万元的购车优惠。不过，刚上市的卡罗拉、新马自达3昂克赛拉等车型价格仍十分坚挺。
事实上，终端售价往往受到供求关系的影响，热销的合资车难有较大优惠，甚至还有加价提车的现象，一些较为冷门的车型则会释放较多的优惠。如果要选一款经济的车型，冷门车更能压低价格入手。
品牌类型指数也很好的佐证了这一点，豪华车和合资车库存压力持续减小，但自主品牌的压力仍在上升。以SUV市场为例，头把交椅仍由哈弗H6把持，但本田CR-V、大众途岳、奇骏、奥迪Q5等来势汹汹，销量前五名的国产车型仅有哈弗H6一款车！过去这个情况则是相反，四款自主+一款合资的车型组合在销量排行榜前五位更为常见。必须要承认，消费者更青睐于品牌价值较高、知名度较大的合资品牌，自主品牌在品牌建设和产品竞争力方面仍要加把劲。
02
“银十”不容乐观？
国庆黄金周往往是消费者集中购车的关键节点，不少4S店为吸引消费者，也会给出较大的优惠。相对来说，国庆长假期间到店客流明显增长了不少。根据轱辘哥在广州实地走访了解，目前节能车正成为新的增长引擎。
节能车在广深两地备受关注。今年6月，广深两地先后宣布增加节能车摇号指标，中签率相比普通燃油车大幅上升，在政策层面进一步刺激了消费者入手节能车的欲望。不过，节能车的选择并不多，仅有丰田的卡罗拉双擎、雷凌双擎、凯美瑞双擎，以及本田CR-V混动、雅阁混动等少数车型。据轱辘哥了解，目前雷凌双擎可享有2000元的优惠，加上节能车补贴，消费者至少可享有5000元的购车优惠。
另外，为促进汽车消费，广州还特别在9月30日，以摇号方式配置普通车增量指标1万个，其中个人指标9000个。不过，此次摇号活动中签的指标有效期截止至2019年12月31日，市民需在此日期前使用摇号指标。国庆黄金周前进行此操作，在第四季度挽救广州车市的决心也是十分明显了。
乐观来看，国庆黄金周期间，消费者的购车热情高涨，4S提供的优惠足够给力，会带来一定的销量增长。经销商为了冲刺销量，年底还将有更大的优惠幅度释出，消费者的观望情绪也会更加浓烈。因此，10月的销量表现会有好转，但与此前的热销仍有不小的差距，“银十”的含金量不会太高。汽车作为大宗消费品，消费者在购车前会考虑多重因素，除了价格之外，还有车型本身的质量、综合竞争力，以及服务、售后、品牌自身的价值等。汽车经销商要想降低库存，也不能仅在优惠方面作文章。轱辘哥与不少车主对话过，发现4S店普遍存在“交钱前是孙子，交钱后是大爷”的心态转变，这样的做法很容易流失车主朋友等潜在客户，口碑越做越差，消费者也越来越不买帐，最终库存高企就不难理解了。
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