从2012 年起,政府砸下100亿美元培植电动车电池产业,扶植了上百家厂商。不过政府的补贴政策从2017年起逐步退场,预计2020年全面终止。专家预测目前中国90家电动车电池厂中,或许只有20家能存活。
Realli Research数据显示,以出货量而言,2018 年1~10月,全球前十大电动电池厂中,中国工厂包办了7名。但是日本电池厂消息人士说,没有政府补助,中国工厂不可能称霸市场。优厚的补贴措施,例如每辆生产销售的电动车,政府补助1万美元。
高工产研(GGII)数据显示,2017年中国约有135家本土车用电池厂,2018年减至90家。瑞穗银行国际企业关系部门的首席研究员Tang Jin预测,最终大概只有20家业者幸存。沃特玛电池(OptimumNano Energy)2017年排名中国第三大电池厂,但是政府补贴删减之后,沃特玛电池撑不下去,2018年7月就暂停生产。外界估计,中国电池大厂宁德时代(CATL)、比亚迪(BYD)应可存活,但是过程中仍会受创。
比亚迪经理表示,电动车电池补贴结束,对大小企业都很痛苦,近来政策转向,要淘汰不具科技实力的企业,比亚迪必须在补贴结束前,进一步提高竞争力。比亚迪技术仍落后日厂松下和韩厂LG Chem等,补助退场不利该公司。从比亚迪盈余变化也可看出高度仰赖政府补贴,2015年增加补贴电动车电池厂时,比亚迪当年净利暴冲550%,2016年比亚迪净利续增80%。但2017年政府删减补贴后,比亚迪获利萎缩20%。2018年政府补贴下砍30%,比亚迪净利估计续减20%~30%。
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