019年中国汽车市场能否回暖？这大概是所有“汽车人”和“懂车帝”心中悬而未决的疑问。
即使新年已经过去了两个月，但2018年车市负增长阴影仍未散去，福特、海马等销量腰斩的车企及相关供应商的惨淡收场还在眼前。
但无论形势和市场如何，2019年大幕已经拉开，二姐经过分析之后，认为今年的汽车市场可能会迎来新的增长机会，其契机不是大城市，而是农村市场——这是一个等待被激活，并且有着强烈消费欲望的巨大市场。
首先，农村户口人数达6亿人，有巨大的人口红利，并且农村居民人均可支配收入飞速增长，增长8.8%，比城镇居民的7.8%还高。并且农村居民通过征地补偿，外出务工，或在本地做小生意，收入不断增长，具备了购买汽车的经济基础，这是二姐判断农村汽车市场增长的前提。
其次，农村居民购买汽车的意愿强烈。来看一组数据，国家统计局数据显示，2016年我国农村汽车保有量为17.4辆/百户，截至2017年底，这一数据上升至19.3辆/百户，并且2017年全国居民汽车保有量为29.7辆/百户,城镇居民汽车保有量为37.5辆/百户，农村汽车保有量为19.3辆/百户，由此可看出农村居民购买汽车意愿强烈，并且市场有着巨大提升空间。
另外，农村居民有着强大的购车推动力。作为“农娃”，二姐对农村有很深的眷恋，也有着比较深入的理解，在农村汽车消费基本由两个方面推动：
一是婚恋推动，在农村，“没房没车不结婚”可不只是丈母娘一句玩笑话，多少甜蜜的小两口因为“房和车”把自己提前埋进了爱情的坟墓里，所以婚恋一直是农村购车的重要推动力。
二是本身需求推动，当然这包括“面子消费”的攀比需求和日常交通的刚性需求，农村人口分布分散，公共交通不发达，更需要汽车代步。近年来，乡村振兴稳步推进，农村居民收入、生活水平，以及道路条件均有提高，并且农村汽车消费不会面临停车、堵车、上牌的难题，这都有利于农村汽车市场的“爆发式增长”。
综合来看，农村汽车商场的爆发是万事俱备，只欠东风。而现在，东风也来了——2019年1月29日，国家发改委等十部委正式发布《进一步优化供给推动消费平稳增长 促进形成强大国内市场的实施方案 (2019 年) 》，促进汽车消费的有六条，其中最主要的一条是鼓励农村居民报废三轮汽车，购买3.5 吨及以下货车或者1.6 升及以下排量乘用车。
这个实施方案，被广大汽车人称为新一轮“汽车下乡”。目前已有多家车企响应国家号召，一汽-大众紧跟国家脚步，也为了回馈广大农村消费者，率先推出了“一成首付购新车”和“最高万元报废补贴”的具体汽车下乡政策，主力车型包含捷达、全新宝来、2018款宝来、蔚领四款车型。
其中，捷达首付3888元起，2018款宝来首付7888元起，其余车型可享受4000元至9000元补贴。这四款均是完美满足农村居民需求的车型，足以看出一汽-大众对此次汽车下乡的重视。
2019年，是出行市场重要变革的一年。二姐真心的希望，我们再大谈汽车市场时，不仅只谈市场增量、产业升级，还应当切身实地谈一谈，这些到底能给老百姓的生活带来什么好处。同时，二姐也希望各大车企在提出相应优惠政策的同时，也加快销售和服务网络的部署，提升售后保障水平，解除农村消费者的后顾之忧。
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