根据《汽车情报网》的预测分析，我们认为2019年电动车市场增速不会放缓，依然可以维持60%以上的销量同比增长。我们给出的2019年纯电动汽车销量预测如下：
下面小编主要从终端销量结构，电池技术和成本，参与品牌情况等维度来谈谈增长背后的原因。
电动汽车的销量结构
下图是2015年到2018年，电动汽车的终端销量组成，向上的趋势是一目了然的。同比均能实现60%以上的增长。同时，终端车型的销售结构也更加多元化，纯电三厢轿车和SUV车型的需求在进一步放大。
电池技术的突破，电池成本也在下降
此处的电池技术主要是储能技术和快充技术，对于储能技术而言，电池能量密度逐年提高，成本会慢慢得到控制，续航里程也会大幅提升，以下给出我们对电池能量密度的趋势分析：我们预计，到2020年，电池的能量密度的门槛将会提升到200Wh/kg。固态电池、燃料电池技术，如果一旦突破，并能够商业化，相信，电动汽车的普及将会更加顺畅。同时，越来越多的新能源主机厂和公共充电服务运营商都在参与大功率充电的研发工作。电池的快充技术也肯定会得到突破。
电池成本的控制主要体现两个层面，规模化效应和电池技术的突破。越来越多的参与者进来，包括传统主机厂都在积极布局电池PACK工厂，都会对电池产业起到降本增效的作用。
充电基础设施普及
目前制约电动汽车普及一个非常大的障碍就是充电问题，对于2019年，国家新能源汽车政策中，肯定会将政策向充电基础设施的建设倾斜。主要充电不再是一个痛点，电动汽车的销量也会更上一层楼。
越来越多的新能源主机厂加入到电动汽车的阵营
豪华品牌、合资品牌、自主品牌、造车新势力等，都会全新的纯电动车型会在2019年上市销售，包括特斯拉的Model 3也会在今年国产上市，这些车型上市，对于新能源汽车市场而言，并不是简单的销量增加，而是对整一个市场，有很大的引导和教育
小结
从终端电动汽车销量来看，销售结构越来越多元化，SUV车型和三厢轿车都在刺激终端的用户需求；电池储能技术的慢慢突破以及电池成本的下降，都会降低电动汽车的成本；越来越多的品牌加入到电动汽车市场之后，产品就会多元化，用户的选择就会变多，整个电动汽车市场就会进入良性发展轨道。
基于以上几个维度的分析，我们还是非常看好2019年乃至未来几年电动汽车市场的前景。
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