【编者按】市场降温之际，100万辆车并不好卖；不可战胜的特斯拉，是新能源车企的拦路虎；地产后盾正面临自身的困境……恒大造车很难一帆风顺。
本文来自锌刻度，原作者许小新、李季；由亿欧汽车整理，供业内人士参考。
10月23日，广州，这个还依然处于盛夏的城市，这天夜晚迎来了一声叹息。比赛终止哨声想起的那一刻，广州恒大无缘亚冠决赛成为不可逆转的事实，天河体育场的草坪上，落寞的身影，汗湿的衣衫，裹挟着的“恒驰”二字却依然醒目。
就在一周之前，关于“恒驰”的一番操作，吸引了人们关注的目光——来自德国、意大利、美国、法国、日本等国家，经手过奔驰、宝马、保时捷、兰博基尼等豪车品牌的15位世界顶级汽车造型设计大师成立了“恒大新能源汽车造型设计专家委员会”，为“恒驰”全系列车型提供造型设计。
作为这个专家天团核心领导者的恒大集团董事局主席许家印，在月初的一次季度工作会议上就喊出了：恒大旗下新能源车的产量将达到年产100万辆，并用3到5年成为全世界最大、实力最强的新能源汽车集团。
如今，新能源汽车市场持续降温，国内外品牌竞争态势激烈，15位顶级专家、100万辆、3到5年称霸全球……恒大有底气，但狂想未必真实。
市场降温，100万辆汽车真的好卖？
新能源市场环境的巨变，将是恒大实现全世界最大新能源新车巨头梦想的最大考量。
“经过多年发展，中国新能源汽车行业已完成从零到一，从无到有的建设。市场导入期基本结束，行业发展进入了依靠内生动力平稳增长的2.0阶段。”
10月25日开幕的2019全球未来出行大会上，北汽新能源党委副书记连庆锋如此表示。
如他所言，对于已进入2.0阶段的新能源汽车市场而言，从蓝海到红海，竞争格局已变，确实需要依靠“内生动力”来推动行业平稳增长，但现实却是——目前我国新能源汽车仍主要依赖于政策驱动。
此前，得益于国家在新能源汽车产业中投入的巨额补贴，不光让新能源汽车车企降低了成本，也是消费者选择新能源汽车的重要因素。
也就是说，一旦政策变动，新能源汽车市场将会随之出现波动。
自6月25日起，2019年新能源汽车补贴新政正式执行。与2018年综合相比，有近70%的补贴退坡，甚至地方补贴也被取消。这直接导致车企生产和销售成本上涨，还增加了消费者购买新能源汽车的相关费用。
随着补贴政策的变化，新能源汽车的销售形势果然发生了骤变。
据中汽协公布的数据显示，
2019年7月，我国新能源汽车销量同比下降6.9%，出现了近两年多来首次负增长。8月，新能源汽车销量同比下降15.8%。9月，新能源汽车销量出现连续第三个月的下滑，同比下降34.2%。
新能源汽车市场进入增长“瓶颈期”的同时，国内众多新能源汽车造车企业也陷入了困境：
蔚来几年间巨亏220亿元，小鹏、威马、拜腾等各自问题严重，比亚迪重点发力的新能源汽车最新数据显示9月销量大跌47%，甚至就连原定10月底举行的上海新能源汽车展也因为众多企业倒闭或没钱延迟举办……
小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏曾表示，“将中国新能源汽车中的电动汽车数据拆出来，再将卖给的士、出行等的大客户数据拆出，最后将实际销售价格12万以下主要给出行金融解决方案的拆出来，剩下的卖给真实消费者数据大概只有是几万辆。”行业残酷的现实可见一斑。
而在此情况下，行业龙头特斯拉最近还宣布其在上海的工厂已开始试投产，按照特斯拉的建造速度，最快2021就可以实现量产。
届时，即使恒大在广州南沙区投产的100万辆新能源汽车顺利面市。在这么严峻的市场环境下，更将直面如此强劲竞争对手，已有众多前车之鉴的恒大新能源汽车，其表现真会如许家印预想那样吗？
世界顶级汽车造型设计大师将为“恒驰”全系列车型提供造型设计
难以对抗的特斯拉
摆在恒大面前的，不止是新能源汽车行业的变幻莫测，更有实力强劲的拦路虎——特斯拉。
作为当前新能源汽车行业里的领头羊，特斯拉的优势其实显而易见。
若要谈论起真正的核心竞争力，有人认为是可OTA升级的系统，也有人认为是领先的电池技术，不过对于这一点，其实是见仁见智。
不同的人在选择特斯拉时，所看中的点都是不一样的。甚至可以说，马斯克与特斯拉这块招牌，对于有些人来说就是一种谜之吸引力。
根据中汽协的数据显示，2019年上半年，传统车企当中，我国新能源汽车累计销量突破10万辆的企业仅比亚迪一家，销量为14.57万辆。新能源汽车企业销量突破5万辆的厂商有上汽新能源、北汽新能源和吉利新能源。而特斯拉则在今年上半年的累计销量为15.82万辆，位居第一。
销量数字 背后，是所有新能源汽车企业无法回避的重要问题，那就是量产能力。任凭你将汽车功能、造型、技术吹得如何天花乱坠，但背后若没有一个强大的工厂来稳定制造出质量可靠的产品，那都是一纸空谈。
而特斯拉目前已经拥有两间超级工厂，一间位于美国内华达州，占地达1360万平方英尺。
尽管Model S和Model X的电池从日本进口，Model S、Model X和Model3在特斯拉位于佛里蒙特的制造厂进行组装，但这间超级工厂仍承载着Model3的电池、汽车电池组、传统系统以及两款储能产品Powerwall和PowerPack的生产。
至于另一间，则是已在近期进行整车试生产的上海超级工厂。
该工厂整个建设过程仅花了168个工作日，马斯克预测，到今年年底，特斯拉上海超级工厂每周将生产至少1000辆汽车，这是此前内华达州工厂需要花数月才能完成的目标产量。
更值得一提的是，在特斯拉2019年第三季度财报以及随后的电话会中，特斯拉提到将在欧洲建立超级工厂的计划细节，并表示有可能会在2021年投入运营。
如此一来，特斯拉在全球的量产能力将呈现一骑绝尘的姿态。这对于恒大来说，无疑是阻碍其成为世界最大、实力最强的新能源汽车集团的一大劲敌。
但特斯拉花了数年才突破的量产能力，恒大真的能在3至5年内就完成吗？许家印想要实现的“换道超车”，哪里来的底气？
地产能为新能源保驾护航？
恒大敢于与特斯拉拼刺刀，一个不容忽视的因素是拥有地产这个坚实的后盾。
许家印曾如此定义公司版图：“恒大的产业格局经过这么多年的摸索已经定型，未来是以地产为基础，以文化旅游和大健康为两翼，以新能源汽车为龙头的产业布局。”
然而，这个后盾正在经受监管层的考验，融资收紧成为每个房企都不得不面对的难题。
今年5月，银保监会下发《关于开展“巩固治乱象成果促进合规建设”工作的通知银保监发[2019]23号文》，掀开新一轮监管大幕，地产融资渠道逐步收紧，严查各种资金通过挪用、转道等违法违规方式流入地产领域。
孙宏斌近期坦言：“融创在融资收紧方面是史无前例的严重。”
恒大在今年融资渠道收紧之前，进行了多轮融资，其中4月8日发行的20亿美元三档票据，利率分为9.5%、10.0%与10.5%，比优质企业境外美元贷款利率高了一倍不止。
此后，再无融资计划。
恒大总负债金额为1.57万亿元，净负债率为151.94%，在偿债压力步步紧逼之下，唯有靠自我造血续接现金流，降价促销成为重要的生存手段。
促销成效明显：恒大公告宣布，9月销售金额约831.1亿元，较上月增长约73.8%，较去年同期增长约31.9%，刷新集团单月销售额历史纪录。
代价为销售均价降低至10054元/平方米，同比下降4.3%。
许家印在10月7日内部会议中要求：“一定要提前超额完成今年6000亿元的销售任务，同时，下半年销售回款要确保2800亿元、力争3000亿元。”
之所以这么急迫，是因为新能源汽车投资大手笔不断。
2019年6月11日，恒大宣布投资1600亿元在广州南沙区建设新能源汽车基地等项目，6月15日又宣布在投资沈阳1200亿元建设以新能源汽车为主的一批重大项目。
短短几天内，恒大就出手2800亿豪赌新能源汽车。
更早，恒大耗资上百亿元级买买买瑞典NEVS、科尼赛克、日本卡耐、英国Protean、广汇集团等公司。
更不用说聘请业界顶尖汽车设计师、创办恒大汽车研究院全球招聘8000人等，花费也不菲。
此前，FF造车已烧钱145亿元、蔚来造车已亏损220亿元，而据公开资料显示，中国造车新势力的融资规模已经近2000亿元。
烧了这么多钱，效果众人皆知。
那么，恒大地产业务负债高企、融资不易，能否持续为新能源汽车计划输血或者提供资金保障，就得打一个问号。
这考验着许家印平衡现实与梦想的能力。
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原创文章，作者：cesifu，如若转载，请注明出处：http://www.cesifu.com/article/61203.html
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