商情,专注行业22年11月11日,工信部、国家税务总局公布了《享受车船税减免优惠的节约能源使用新能源汽车车型目录》(第十一批),福田汽车、长城汽车、中国重汽、宇通客车、龙马环卫等多家公司的多种车型在列。在刚刚结束的第二届中国国际进口博览会上,包括大众、丰田、福特等60家跨国展商带了70多项新产品和新技术,新能源汽车消费升级成为主要亮点。工业和信息化部装备工业司副司长罗俊杰在第二届中国国际进口博览会期间举行的中国汽车产业发展论坛上表示,工信部正牵头编制《2021年-2035年新能源汽车发展规划》,目前《规划》正处于征求意见阶段。《规划》面向2035年新能源汽车的发展,着力突出“四化”,即电动化、智能化、网联化、共享化。公司方面,11月7日,特斯拉通过官方微博首次公布了中国制造的Model 3照片,而这直接源于上海超级工厂进度“超预期”地进入了试生产阶段。同日,比亚迪宣布,丰田汽车公司与比亚迪就成立纯电动汽车的研发公司签订合资协议。新公司将于2020年在中国正式成立,丰田与比亚迪各出资50%。业内人士表示,基于对能源政策、科技进步、产业化进程的研究,长期看好新能源汽车产业的发展前景。另据上海社科院发布报告称,2018年,新能源汽车是对上海重点产业国际竞争力贡献度增长最快的行业,其贡献度比上年提高了30%左右。此外,中汽协表示,下半年以来,我国汽车产销虽呈现了降幅逐渐收窄的走势,但在国内市场消费需求不足、国六标准带来的技术升级压力、新能源补贴大幅下降等因素的影响下,市场总体回升的幅度有限。而这些影响因素短期内仍将存在,因此行业将继续承压,企业分化也将更加明显。前三季度,国民经济运行总体平稳,经济结构持续优化,随着国家“六稳”政策的逐渐落实,未来两个月,汽车销量降幅将继续呈现逐渐收窄态势。二级市场上,截至今日收盘,云意电气、纳川股份、华中数控、科博达等多股纷纷上涨。中金公司指出,10月销量低位回暖,自主分化继续加大。外资推进新能源战略加快,中方机会与挑战并存。预计如果12月销量转正将带动市场积极情绪,整车板块,自主品牌的盈利弹性大于合资品牌,建议关注销量表现好或估值较低的一线自主车企,看好长城汽车、长安汽车、东风汽车。零部件板块,继续看好华域汽车、星宇股份、均胜电子等细分行业龙头和估值较低的标的。商用车板块,环保、治超带动销量中枢上移,持续看好潍柴动力、中国重汽A/H。东兴证券汽车行业分析师表示,展望四季度,新能源汽车月度产销数据同比下降的风险不能完全排除;同时,产业链对补贴的依赖将进一步降低,市场洗牌将进一步加快。基于对能源政策、科技进步、产业化进程的研究,长期看好新能源汽车产业的发展前景。中银国际认为,2020年全球新能源汽车需求有望超预期,一是主要国家和地区排放标准日益严格,主要政府陆续出台新能源汽车支持政策;二是全球主要车企(大众、特斯拉等)电动化进程加速,全新电动平台(大众MEB平台)投入使用,爆款车型密集推出,新能源汽车性价比优势逐步显现,有望带动全球需求增长。推荐大众MEB平台国产电池供应商宁德时代、进入海外车企高端供应链的亿纬锂能;以及LG供应链标的璞泰来、当升科技、新宙邦、恩捷股份等。关注商情新能源
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