2019年8月23日,国务院关税税则委员会发布《关于对原产于美国的汽车及零部件恢复加征关税的公告》,自2019年12月15日12时01分起,对原产于美国的汽车及零部件恢复加征25%、5%关税。
其实,这不是中国第一次对原产于美国的汽车及零部件加征关税。早在去年6月15日,美国公布了加征25%关税的500亿美元中国进口商品清单。中国则于同年7月6日起对原产地为美国的汽车加征关税,从原来的15%额外加征到40%。那么,这一次恢复加征关税后,进口汽车市场将面临什么变化呢?现在是一番什么景象?
去年年底,国务院关税税则委员会发布公告,从2019年1月1日起,对原产于美国的汽车及零部件暂停加征关税3个月,并且,3个月后还有可能继续暂停加征关税。关税下调的消息一公布,部分车企迅速作出响应,调整旗下部分车型的建议零售价。宝马在第一次关税下降后率先宣布下调建议零售价。去年12月上市的BMW X5 xDrive 40i M运动套装车型,其建议零售价从80.99万下调至77.99万元,这样的售价已经比奥迪Q7在华的3.0T车型(79.98万元)还要低。同时,BMW X6、X5M、X6M和如今在售的上一代BMW X5的厂家建议零售价都所下调,省下的钱都能买一辆飞度!根据中国海关的数据显示,今年上半年我国累计进口汽车为52.96万辆,同比增长17.2%。从销量方面来看,今年上半年共售出了40.7万辆进口车,同比小增3.4%,增长趋势比较稳定。值得一提的是,在库存方面,今年6月份进口车行业库存大幅度下降,达到了18个月以来的最低数值。加征关税后,又会是一番什么景象?
上图是对美产汽车加征25%关税的清单。可以看出,上图包含了大部分的传统燃油机车型(税则号尾号为1的小轿车不在加征关税商品清单中)、混合动力车型和纯电动车型,这也就是说,除了美产进口小轿车外,其他在美国生产的车型都受到波及,这些车型在国内的售价都会上涨。那么会涨多少钱呢?按照我国目前的税收政策,一辆进口车要想进入中国就要缴纳三个税种:关税、消费税和增值税。根据三个税种的税率算出的综合税率则能更清晰地看出具体价格涨幅。综合税率=(关税税率+消费税税率+增值税税率+关税税率×增值税税率)/(1-消费税税率)具体涨幅如下:从上表不难看出,对于3.0L排量以下的车型,税率增幅基本集中在30%左右,而对于3.0-4.0L排量的车型,增幅为39%;4.0L排量以上的车型的税率增幅高达48%。至于具体价格,买车君以一辆报关价格30万的2.0L排量车型为例,套公式,得出的结果是:加征关税前的价格为46.2万左右,加征关税后的价格则上涨至55.4万元左右,依然是要多付一辆飞度的钱。首当其冲的会是哪些品牌?
根据数据显示,原产地为美国的乘用车在去年加征关税前的7~9月月度报关量均下滑超过50%。同时,美产汽车在华的市场份额占比迅速下滑到14.7%。进口成本的上升,直接影响到进口车数量的下降,最终受伤的还是汽车品牌。首当其冲的,应该是几乎完全依赖进口的特斯拉和林肯。如今,特斯拉中国只推出一款Model 3标准续航后驱升级版,其他车型均依赖进口。正因为如此,特斯拉受关税调整的影响非常大。在暂停加征关税的三个月中,特斯拉的价格一降再降,特斯拉已经在中国市场进行了3次的价格下调。根据特斯拉发布的第二季度业绩报告显示,特斯拉今年上半年在中国市场的销量额增幅超过40%。前不久获得生产许可同时进入推荐车型目录的特斯拉,已经加快了生产速度。但是,一旦特斯拉旗下车型均被加征25%的关税,那么中国富豪是否还愿意付出更多资金去购买?到目前为止,林肯第一款国产车型Consair还处于“酝酿”状态,因此对于完全依赖进口销售的林肯而言,加征25%的关税或是致命性的打击。要知道,林肯在美国市场的表现并没有太突出,反而在中国市场的表现更加突出。今年上半年,林肯品牌在华累计销量为25514辆,优于已经国产的英菲尼迪、讴歌。中美汽车市场形势完全不同,林肯对中国汽车市场的依赖程度越来越高。不过据相关数据显示,林肯第三季度共售出11,618辆新车,9月销量为4,165辆,环比8月增长11%,比7月增长13%。不可否认,林肯在华面临的销售压力并不小,终端优惠已经来到5-15万元。以热销车型林肯MKC为例,优惠幅度在5万元左右并不是怪事,老款领航员由于新款同堂销售,更有低于新车指导价10万元以上的优惠。买车君预测,对于凯迪拉克、Jeep、福特、雪佛兰等已经国产了的美国品牌来讲,也会受到一些影响,但与特斯拉、林肯相比,应该是小巫见大巫了。从目前来看,宝马、奔驰、特斯拉等车企还没有公开进口车型的价格调整信息,最终会对其销量有什么影响也不得而知。但买车君在这里要提出的是,进口汽车的价格还受到汇率、市场需求等一些因素的影响,所以关税虽然是大头,但并不是唯一决定的因素。再加上另外一些众所周知的原因的多变性,这场战可能还会有回旋余地。
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